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Afghan-Indian Friendship Isolates
Pakistan
Burgeoning relations
between Afghanistan and India leave Pakistan out in the cold.
By Hafizullah Gardesh in Kabul (ARR No. 214, 4-May-06)
Afghanistan’s head of state has become quite the diplomatic jet-setter.
Last month, President Hamed Karzai returned from a three-day trip to
India, where he and more than 100 advisers secured lucrative commitments
from Delhi and cemented a budding friendship.
The warm smiles and rich promises could not have been in starker contrast
to his February visit to see Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, which
ended in recriminations and public name-calling. Musharraf told reporters
that Karzai was “oblivious” of what was going on in his own country, while
the Afghan president told the international media of his concerns about
Pakistan’s failure to curb the insurgents crossing into his country.
But Karzai’s charm offensive in India could backfire in his homeland, say
observers. Pakistan, threatened by the rapprochement between two of its
long-time foes, could step up efforts to destabilise neighbouring
Afghanistan, with whom its shares a porous border and a troubled history.
The lands between Pakistan and Afghanistan are among the most
conflict-prone in the region. Insurgents who many say are trained and
equipped in Pakistan pour across the border into Kandahar, Kunar, and
Zabul provinces, mounting suicide attacks, intimidating or recruiting an
already disaffected population, and creating major headaches for the
central government and its foreign backers.
Analysts say the ensuing mayhem keeps Afghanistan off-kilter, and thus
less of a threat to Pakistan.
A strong, stable Afghanistan, bolstered by American military and
diplomatic support, and further strengthened by an alliance with India,
could on the other hand make Pakistan very uncomfortable indeed.
“Every time Afghanistan has tried to get closer to India, Pakistan has
reacted very negatively,” said Habibullah Rafi, political analyst and
member of the Afghan Academy of Sciences. “But Pakistan must realise that
destabilising Afghanistan will not benefit it, either.”
Pakistan may also be feeling threatened because it no longer enjoys the
unconditional support of the United States. In a lightning visit to
Afghanistan, India and Pakistan in early March, US president George Bush
did not conceal where his favour lay. He left India having signed a
much-coveted deal on nuclear energy, while his visit to Pakistan left
Musharraf with nothing.
“Pakistan has lost its strategic importance to the United States,” said
Abdul Ghafoor Liwal, an Afghan political analyst and head of the Regional
Studies Centre.
Afghanistan and India are natural allies, added Liwal, since they both
have serious problems with Pakistan - India over disputed Kashmir, and
Afghanistan over the border.
Some in Afghanistan still have hopes of regaining territory ceded to what
is now Pakistan back in 1893, when the British rulers of India established
the Durand Line that marked out the southern Afghan frontier. While this
border remains internationally recognised, many Afghans look with longing
at the large Pashtun population in Pakistan’s tribal areas, and dream of a
united “Pashtunistan”.
“India wants a strong government in Afghanistan while Pakistan has always
wanted a weak one,” said Liwal.
Delhi may also welcome the thought that if Afghanistan keeps Pakistan
preoccupied with its western flank, Islamabad will be less active in
Kashmir.
“When Pakistan became confident of its western borders during the Taleban
regime, it brought a lot of military pressure to bear on Kashmir,” said
Mohammad Ismail Youn, a political analyst and lecturer at Kabul
University.
India and Pakistan have conflicting interests in Afghanistan, added Youn.
“Pakistan wants Afghanistan to be economically and politically dependent
on it,” he said. “Pakistan also wants to keep India from finding a way to
Central Asian markets.”
The result can only be more conflict, he said.
“It is clear that Pakistan is very afraid of close relations between India
and Afghanistan,” said Youn. “Karzai’s recent visit to India has had a
very bad effect on Pakistan and it will try to create more problems in
Afghanistan, including shutting down transit routes between India and
Afghanistan.”
Youn pointed to a temporary ban on cement exports to Afghanistan as a sign
that Pakistan is trying to halt reconstruction efforts in its war-ravaged
neighbour.
In recent weeks, Pakistan has also begun closing refugee camps, calling
for the swift repatriation of the Afghan refugees on its soil.
Lou Fintor, press attaché at the US embassy in Kabul, disputes the view
that America has lost interest in Pakistan.
“It is wrong to say that America is giving priority to one or two of the
three countries,” he said. “All of them are America’s allies and have
equal importance.”
Officials at Islamabad’s embassy in Kabul refused to be interviewed, but
Sartaj Aziz, a former Pakistani foreign minister, has acknowledged in an
interview with Radio Liberty that Pakistan is concerned about Afghanistan
and India’s relations.
Azis pointed to recent statements from Islamabad claiming that India was
using its consulates in Afghanistan to instigate trouble in Baluchistan, a
Pakistani frontier province that has seen a sharp increase in violence
over the past few months.
Sandeep Kumar, a senior official at the Indian embassy in Kabul,
vehemently denied that India was playing a role in the Baluchistan
insurgency.
“We have heard these claims through Pakistan’s media,” he said. “They are
completely false.”
Kumar said the emergence of the Afghan-Indian relationship was of historic
significance, adding that other countries should not worry about it.
“I do not think that good relations between Afghanistan and India will
have a negative effect on Afghan-Pakistani relations,” said Kumar. “India
wants there to be friendly ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
The Afghan president has stated publicly that he wants cooperation among
all three countries, even offering his services as a peacebroker between
Islamabad and Delhi.
But the tension between India and Pakistan on the one hand, and Pakistan
and Afghanistan on the other, is palpable.
Afghan presidential spokesman Karim Rahimi grew quite heated when asked
about Pakistan’s claims of Indian meddling in Baluchistan.
“These claims are baseless,” he said. “The international community is
present in Afghanistan and is witness that Pakistan’s claims are
groundless.”
Hafizullah Gardesh is the
IWPR local editor in Kabul. Mohammad Jawad Sharifzada also contributed to
this report.
http://www.iwpr.net
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