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East Timor, Montenegro, and the emerging
Kurdistan
Sunday, June 18, 2006
KurdishMedia.com - By Matthew Lanier
A number of events which have unfolded in the last five years have had
profound implications for the future of the greater Kurdistan region. In
2002 the tiny territory of East Timor achieved independence from its giant
neighbor Indonesia, and this year with just 55.4% in favor the people of
Montenegro voted to end their nation's union with Serbia and become an
independent state.
In both cases, there are lessons to be learned. East Timor, which was born
out of violence, descended into anarchy and disarray earlier this year.
Montenegro, on the other hand, has seen a very smooth and peaceful
dissolution of its union with Serbia and international recognition of its
status as an independent nation.
Though the Kurds of northern Iraq represent perhaps only 15% of the global
Kurdish population, they unquestionably wield more power and are more
vocal than their oft-marginalized ethnic brothers within the region. The
unofficial referendum of early 2005 showed the near universal desire for
immediate independence for those living in southern Kurdistan. The 98% in
favor of independence is far higher than in both the East Timor and
Montenegro referendums, and there is a growing global understanding of the
depth of Kurdish aspirations for self-determination.
Despite the present momentum, a solution for the Kurds must be 1)
realistic in nature, 2) well-planned, and 3) properly executed. In terms
of being realistic, there must be an acceptance of the current
geopolitical realities within the region. Turkey, Syria, and Iran are all
burgeoning powers seeking to assert themselves. But it is also important
to note that the case of East Timor has shown that military power is not
all that is involved in achieving independence.
It can also be said, however, that the recent anarchy in East Timor has
likely changed international opinion on supporting desperately poor
regions in their fight for independence. Along the same lines,
Montenegro's political and economic stability likely played a key role in
its peaceful independence. Thus, it is clear that the Kurds of southern
Kurdistan must strive for economic autonomy and, in a broader sense,
socio-economic prosperity. The KRG government has put an emphasis on this
aspect and should be praised for doing so. However, more must done,
especially in attracting investment in the Kurdish region's potentially
explosive energy sector. With widespread development and a booming economy
the demands of the Kurds will be impossible to deny.
If Kurdish independence is to ever come the planning for it must begin
now. Activists of a Greater Kurdistan have previously noted the importance
of the development or recognition of a Kurdish lingua franca. Such efforts
should absolutely be supported both by academia and by government
institutions. If the Zionists could resurrect a dead language that now has
more than seven million speakers a solution for the various Kurdish
languages can be found.
Perhaps most importantly, the Kurdish diaspora must be sought out and
included in the crafting of an independent Kurdistan. According to one
source, four million Kurds are presently living in Western democracies.
Assuming a per capita income of $20,000, this segment of the diaspora has
an economic output of $80 billion annually. The most optimistic estimate
would put the economic output of regions under the control of the
Kurdistan Regional Government at $15 billion. This is simply one
representation of the relative power of the diaspora. Many also have an
incredible academic and intellectual capacity which could help Kurdistan
become the most progressive nation in the region.
It is also important that any future independence for southern Kurdistan
be properly implemented. It must be peaceful while at the same time
clearly asserting the overwhelming solidarity of the Kurdish people. And
independence in one region must not lead to hasty decisions in surrounding
areas. The initial independence will simply be the first step in a much
broader movement to establish a progressive, modern Kurdistan that will
reshape the way the world sees the Middle East, for it must always be
remembered that when all has been said and done the Kurds have no friends
but the mountains.
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